We'll see
Time is the ultimate stressor. Most of the current narratives, ideas, books, products or technologies are unlikely to stand the test of time.
Meet Lindy.
I have known Lindy for about 8 years and we were introduced by Nassim Taleb.
I like Lindy because it’s hard to BS her. She is a skeptic and doesn’t fall for the popular narrative. And being with her, I have become skeptical too, as you shall see.
BTW - Lindy is an idea, not a person. Her full name is: Lindy Effect.
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So what does Lindy Effect say? It says that time is the ultimate stressor. Most of the current narratives, ideas, books, products or technologies are unlikely to stand the test of time and will perish. On the other hand, things, ideas and products that have survived for hundreds of years are likely to do so in future too.
Suppose, a book that has been in circulation for 10 years is likely to be in circulation for another 10 years and not 100 years. If it survives for those 10 years, then it may survive another 20 years after that.
On the other hand ideas, religions, books, culture that have survived for hundreds of years are likely to survive for hundreds of years. These have something timelessness about them and therefore they are likely to continue appealing to generations.
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Whenever I come across a popular narrative, I refer it to Lindy and she usually sees right through it. Let me give a few examples, it’ll be fun.
1. Tata Nano
When Tata Nano was announced in 2007, people went berserk. Policemen thought the roads will be choked with Nanos and Auto drivers through they’d have to upgrade to Nano for better customer experience.
Instead of going berserk, if we had asked Lindy, she would have said just two words: we’ll see.
“We’ll see” is such a fantastic response. It acknowledges this may happen or that may happen or maybe what you say may happen. It’s open ended. And non judgmental even though Lindy may have her own doubts.
But on the other hand, unlike Lindy, we like to get mesmerized by what is new and shiny. We jump to conclusions. We fail to ask: but, will it stand the test of time? And Tata Nano did not. It was a bad product that felt cheap. Seems like, we were anxious for nothing!
2. Signal losing signal
Back in 2020, a friend was so excited about the new messaging app called Signal. The same kind of excitement that people had for Arratai a few weeks ago.
But...Lindy told me there is thing called network effects. Something is valuable because more people use it. Replicating that network is extremely hard, if not impossible. Lindy has seen this movie before and she can guess how the movie unfolds.
And so I responded to him: we’ll see.
3. Metaverse
Do you remember the Metaverse? It was supposed to be a virtual universe where we would interact, share etc in the virtual world. Facebook created a holding company and called it Meta. It went all-in into this idea.
Not to be left behind, our Indian IT services companies launched Meta based solutions.
Nearly 4 years have passed. So where is this Metaverse now?
I love experiments. I love randomness. I love companies that change their mind and pivot. I am all for that.
But when rosy announcements are made or a there is a popular narrative going around ... Lindy has taught me to respond with those two magical words: we’ll see.
So, I don’t take mental leaps of faith. I don’t start painting rosy pictures of the future (like roads filled with Tata Nanos) or skies filled with flying cars. Like Lindy, I am skeptical.
Talking of flying cars...
4. Flying cars
Sometime last year I came across this company called Aerpace Industries that plans to make a revolutionary product: a drone that moves on ground and in the air, like a James Bond movie.
Fantastic, isn’t it?
Can you guess how much revenues this revolutionary company posted in FY 25?
10,000 Crs? Not that much. It’s a start up, remember.
1,000 Crs? Not that much. It’s an early stage company, re.
100 Crs? Not that much. Revenues and profits don’t matter, da. It’s a revolutionary idea.
They posted a massive One point six Crs in revenue!
It’s a revolutionary idea but will it fly? We’ll see.
5. Other narratives
Thoughts during Covid: From now on we will wash hands more frequently.
Why are offices needed? Everyone can/ will work from home.
Online classes will replace offline.
Electric vehicles will kick ICE into oblivion
Ola and Uber will make car ownership redundant.
We’ll see.
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So as you can see, Lindy is a skeptic. She does not believe too easily. Her belief is that time tested things are more reliable than recent ideas. But she is open minded and her response is a measured: we’ll see. And being with her, my response to most narratives is also: we’ll see. It may fly or it may not. But, will I put my money on it? Not until it has been tested by time.
I know, I know... I am sounding like an evil banker without imagination denying the next big thing it’s funding.
You see, Lindy is not perfect. Her skepticism does not allow her imaginations to run wild. While being with her, has saved me from pitfalls but it has curtailed my imagination too. That’s the side effect of being skeptical - you don’t know how much is too much.
Someday, you may have a great laugh at my expense. Like the cartoon below.
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Will AI change the world? We’ll see.
-Cheers!