Anitya: everything is transient
Taking outcomes less seriously is like a shock absorber in a world where everything is transient.
Indigo airlines has been in the news. For the wrong reason. They cancelled several thousand flights leading to passengers stranded at airports etc. One of my friends was visiting Varanasi with some 9 other family members and their flight got cancelled on last Saturday. The revised air ticket was upwards of Rs 1 lakh. So either they would have to stay in Varanasi until things normalized or pay exorbitant charges to fly back home. Instead they hired a van to drive them from Varanasi to Bengaluru over some some 45 hours.
So why did this happen?
Could be bad planning on Indigo’s part. Or arrogance. Or stupidity or incompetence. Could be government’s improper policy planning (for e.g. how can one airline be allowed to become a monopoly). Or things just snowballed out of control due to bad luck. Or a perfect storm comprising of all of them. Or maybe something else.
I am sure you have good data and analysis on why this happened. On the other hand, I know less than you as to why this happened.
But I do know something: this too shall pass.
Yes, yes, yes - we are outraged about the ill treatment by Indigo or even exasperated at their incompetence. And we are so angry that we want them to be punished.
But nothing lasts forever.
Even the extreme pain and anger that we feel today will go away. It may seem hard to believe today, but we will move on ... to the next disappointment or euphoria. It is the nature of our mind- to react or over react to what is happening right now. But such impulsive reactions cost us.
About 6 months back, my very smart friends - one of whom is a CEO, were travelling from Mumbai to Bengaluru. And they were booked on Air India and they cancelled those tickets and travelled by Indigo. Why? Because an Air India flight had crashed and only one passenger survived. This was vivid in their recent memory at that time. But now, I am sure people like them are back to travelling by Air India again. That anxiety of flying with Air India too passed.
In the USA, after the 9/11 attacks people were so shocked that they swore off flying and travelled by road instead leading to even more accidents on the road. According to Google Gemini, there were some 2500 extra deaths due to this increased road travel. Air travel volumes reverted back to 2001 levels by 2004.
Paul Slovic, a renowned Psychology professor, showed that people were willing to pay for terrorism insurance than plain insurance, even though the latter covers terrorism and other events.
On the same idea, Danny Kahneman said:
Victims and near victims are very concerned after a disaster. After each significant earthquake, Californians are for a while diligent in purchasing insurance and adopting measures of protection and mitigation. They tie down their boiler to reduce quake damage, seal their basement doors against floods, and maintain emergency supplies in good order. However, the memories of the disaster dim over time, and so do worry and diligence.
Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow
Similarly, during Covid, a lot of smart and educated people swore to never to step outside and work and live at home. A few years later, all those resolutions are forgotten and people have just gone back to the way things were before. Handshakes, less hand washes, eating out, social closeness, traffic jams - everything is back.
Every once in a while, my son gets into the zone where he is extremely diligent in waking up early and putting in extra study hours. And all this lasts for about 72 hours and soon his motivation and behavior reverts to the earlier mean. We’ve seen that movie a million times now.
I met an extremely smart 30-year old investor who had compounded money at an astronomical rate. I asked him how he feels about it and his answer shocked me. He said: everything is transient.
Gautam Buddha taught the same thing. He said, every breath, every sensation, every feeling is anitya. Anitya means impermanence or transient. They come and they go. At that moment of disappointment or euphoria, it would seem like eternity. But that too passes.
Akbar asked Birbal to write just one line on the wall with the condition that reading it in good times should make the emperor careful and reading the same line in bad times should make him hopeful. So Birbal wrote: Waqt hamesha ek jaisa nahin rehta. This too shall pass.
So if everything is temporary or transitory, why react (or overreact in Indigo’s case)? Whatever maybe the sensational topic today, tomorrow there will be another sensational headline and one more the day after. And the day after that. If we go on reacting mindlessly to each of them, we will end up miserable.
Like my friend who got stuck in Varanasi, others too will come up with creative means to get to wherever they need to. With or without Indigo. In fact here are some more nuggets of wisdom:
Best laid plans of men and mice often go awry. This is not a bug but a feature of life. Yes, even the most reliable of things will fall apart, throwing a spanner in our works. You are running late to a meeting, but there could be an unexpected traffic jam or engine breakdown or a flat tire. Over reacting would cloud your best judgment. Instead, don’t over react and respond with calm and clarity .
When life hands you a lemon, make a lemonade. My friend said, that once they settled down in their van, they had a fun time. Yes it was 45 hours long but they bonded and had a nice time. After all, there are somethings you can do in a van that you can’t in an airplane. Like, say Dumb Charades. Or a game of cards.
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Most media, most people and even most MBA schools will stop with the data and analysis. Imagine somebody in some B-school in India would be writing a case study on Indigo right now; unfortunately all the analysis will stop with the operational mistakes. Not one of them will say: it’s a nice case study, this too shall pass.
In my profession of investing, having some wise perspectives helps. Pessimism and bad times don’t last forever. Neither do optimism and good times. Therefore, buy when then there is pessimism and sell when there is euphoria. (I am not an investor in Indigo and have no plans of investing in Indigo.)
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So dear readers, new year is around the corner. Probably a good time to remember to take outcomes in life less seriously. Yes - we all have grand plans in life, but unexpected things happen all the time. That’s the nature of life. An attitude of taking things less seriously knowing that they are all transient, acts like a shock absorber.
And more importantly, learn to enjoy the ups and downs.
Cheers!
PS: And if you are Indigo management, don’t let this crisis go waste. Be humble. Learn from the mistakes. Sincerely apologize to your customers. And make Indigo even better than it was before. Such opportunities to rebuild stronger don’t come too often.
Very well written.